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Greetings and thank you for checking in. After a month of digestion, refocus and rally, we’re swinging back into gear. There has been lots of ink under the bridge regarding the state of climate endeavour. We’ll mostly let that float by and focus on solutions, and the exciting things we see before us.

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With the frayed edges of sentiment and sanity well smoothed by holiday respite (and a week’s yoga retreat in the Santa Cruz mountains of California), it is quite a positive experience to look back at some of the great coverage of COP15 in Copenhagen that I didn’t have the time to read mid-flurry, and that which has come out since.

Some of my favorite photographic work has come through the lens of Kris Krug, while on assignment for Granville Magazine (www.granvilleonline.ca). His photo roundup on Staticphotography.com did a great job of capturing the youth/NGO/Blogger communities in action. Check it out here. (Don’t miss the list of links par excellence that follow the photos, which provide great reading). Though I remain a huge proponent of the UNFCCC process as a global, comprehensive, representative conduit to what must be a global change in the way we do business, I’d say it was the former grouping that really shone in Copenhagen.

Thanks for your continued interest in lilcarbon.com. As “Copenhagen season” fades, we’ll start getting into other blocks of the Carbon Market, and the nuts and bolts of solving this whole climate change thing. Drop us a comment if there are any areas you are particularly curious about that you’d like us to cover.

Outcome #1: Populace on Alert

Happy New Year to all from your lil lilcarbon team! We’re looking forward to carrying the momentum of hopes for climate action in 2009 forwards to a legally binding agreement at the UN level in 2010, as well as the inking of domestic US legislation. Stay tuned for a “2010 lilcarbon wish-list” later in January.

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Though the world did not achieve a fair, ambitious and legally binding agreement come out of Copenhagen, there were quite a number of solid, undeniable outcomes of the meeting. lilcarbon is going to run some of them down, beginning with:

Outcome #1: Populace on Alert

There was a snippet, written in a news source somewhere pre-conference to the effect of “unless you’ve been under a rock for the last few months, you will know that the world is meeting in Copenhagen to stop climate change.” Whereas coverage and discussion of this topic has varied greatly around the world, it’s safe to say that all people in the world with access to media have now heard a lot more about climate change. It is this awareness, and the actions that flow from it, that will clearly be required to move the arm of national leadership on a path to emissions reductions and a science-based treatment of the situation.

The first Saturday of the climate change conference saw a massive rally assemble in Copenhagen’s town square, and march over 6km in the biting cold, through Christianshavn, across Amager Island and all the way to the Bella Center. (more lilcarbon coverage in Dec. 14th article “The Climate Rally”) This march’s gravity is amplified when one ponders that there were somewhere between 50,000 and 100,000 people on this march, joined together to call for a strong deal to fight climate change. lilcarbon uses the crowd counting good practice guidance of “split the difference”, so, 75,000 people marched that Saturday. That’s a lot of people, and we believe it qualifies the title “Populace on Alert”.

lilcarbon got to meet many great people in Copenhagen (hmm. We’ll talk about that in Outcome #3) One of them was a fine chap named Karl Burkart. A self-identified “eco-geek, environmental blogger and communications consultant,” he runs the informative and uniquely pitched website GreenDig.com.

Karl put together a great video about the Climate Rally in Copenhagen. We thought we should share it with you, as an individual passionate about finding solutions to climate change. Hopefully, this will bolster your spirits and show there are many of us fine people, united in building solutions to this rather epic challenge we have before us.

Great profession

Speaking of time spent working on climate change solutions, a little while back Carbon Project Solutions had the pleasure of hiring Miss Helen Stortini for a day, in the commission of her endeavor – the Unemployment Roadshow (www.unemploymentroadshow.com). Helen’s ability to coach us in the proper way to word a website was par excellence, and very much appreciated. Check out her post about the experience, as well as the resultant the Carbon Project Solutions Website. If any of the wording looks funny, it is almost certainly due to my remixing, and not to the work of Miss Stortini. As for the site functionality, I know we’ve got to work on the web design a little more…

Do you like Helen’s work? If you are lucky, she may still be taking jobs, check in on her website.

Maybe we can convince her to come and write for lilcarbon…

What I think about Copenhagen.

It took me until late Tuesday afternoon to figure it out. After a morning walk on snowy Copenhagen cobblestones, flight to Heathrow, train to South Kensington (and back), and the heavenly purple clouds outside my plane window, I checked in to the last leg of my journey, a Westjet flight from Calgary to Vernon-home. When the fact I was en route from Copenhagen came up with the check-in agent, she asked me how it went.

As you may know, the UNFCCC 15th Conference of the Parties (COP15) came to a close in the morning hours of December 19th, with the inking of the “Copenhagen Accord”. Many consider the accord to be a failure, as it is neither legally binding, nor particularly ambitious, and leaves pretty much all major decisions until some time in the future. It certainly does not live up the the promise that was “Copenhagen”.

Like everyone who attended the conference at Bella Center in fair Copenhagen, as well as much of the rest of the world, I had been trying to decide if the conference was a failure or not. And in that moment of clarity at the Westjet counter, I realized that my answer was “Changing the world is hard, what were you expecting?”

For all of those who’s lives revolve around solving climate change, we’ve been fighting for a good long time, and will surely find the imperative to fight for a good long time more. There were thousands of people at the COP that have been dedicated to this work for over a decade. I myself have been living and breathing the work for the last five years, first with Brinkman, and then with CPS Carbon Project Solutions Inc. If there is a single thing that one learns in this space, and within the greater environmental realm, it is that though the solutions may be obvious, that path to achieving them is damn hard.

Science and logic tell us that climate change is happening, it is being accelerated in the direction of a global warming by our actions, and that we really don’t want to feel its effects. The meeting in Copenhagen was seized upon as the solution by a world grown more aware and alarmed by this imperative. As the polar icecaps melt, and weather extremes become compellingly different, it is clear to many people that the game is up, and we need to make a change. What was the fifteenth annual roundup for the ongoing negotiations of the United Nations Convention on Climate Change, a Conference of the Parties titled “COP15” became known as “Copenhagen” and subsequently synonymous with “hope”.

A lot of hopes were crushed that day, Saturday Dec. 19th, as news spread that a small, unfinished accord was replacing the hundreds of pages and thousands of hours of negotiations, and the dream of a global binding agreement signed this decade. The thought comes rather quickly: Climate change is a clear and present danger; if we can’t agree on tackling it now, with 120+ heads of state and the publicity juggernaut, when can we?

I as well share that profound concern. But all of this does not dim the beauty that did shine in Copenhagen. For all the setbacks, I know the people working in the trenches of climate change endeavour will be immeasurably bouyed by the groundswell of public support coming out the last year. After (hopefully) a lil holiday’s rest, “Copenhagen” will light a fire in the hearts, and under the bums, of those crafting positive policy, mobilizing the people, developing the carbon market, pioneering new technologies and commercializing the existing solutions that need but scale to achieve our task.

lilcarbon is going to talk a lot more about the nitty gritty, the nuts and bolts of how these solutions come into play, and the kinds of actions that must be driven by the building framework Copenhagen set out to create. But for today, the clear success of Copenhagen was a mobilization of people, from all parts of society, calling for change. This is the only force, applied within the machinations of democracy as well as the overarching spirit of human determination, with which we can meet the challenge of halting climate change.

Copenhagen is not the end-game, but rather a vigorous skirmish. So rest a little this Christmas day. Laugh and smile with your loved ones, dust off your boots. Bolster yourself for another year’s efforts in a fight we can win together.

The Copenhagen Accord

Significantly below expectations, yet at a spot that perches a global climate agreement at a spot for it to move forward on sound principles, COP15 has ended and a deal reached. Called the “Copenhagen Accord”, a UN document that acts somewhat like a memorandum of understanding before the full contract has achieved consensus by the countries of the world.

Key details of the Copenhagen Accord are as follows:

• The developed world will commit to reducing global emissions of greenhouse gases by 80% below 1990 levels by 2050. Mention of a global reduction of 50% by 2050 removed as developing world was unwilling to commit to such a target.

• Draft text indicates that voluntary cuts by the developing world will be “subject to international measurement, reporting, and verification (MRV).” This was watered down in the final version, but retains a commitment to the principle.

• Those wishing for an actionable outcome on Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD+) were left unfulfilled, as no mechanisms were agreed upon. Under the Copenhagen Accord, text refers to the fact that countries recognize the vital role of reducing deforestation in halting climate change, which provides a placeholder for future talks. lilcarbon will dig deeper into the REDD+ question in the coming weeks.

• The developed countries will commit to providing $100 billion a year by 2020 “to address the needs of developing countries.” This has begun with a range of quick-start funding mechanisms in the 2010-2012 period.

• In a hopeful, but ultimately bizarre move, parties to the agreement will review the accord by 2016 and decide whether stiffer cuts are needed. This helps address the concerns of a group of smaller nations, which had been pressing for a goal of keeping the planet’s temperature increase below 1.5 degrees C. Current emissions reductions commitments under the Accord translate to an expected warming of at least 2 to 3 degrees.

After a lil period of rest, recuperation and reflection, it’ll be time to get back to work and craft this into a legally binding document by June for a UN meeting in Bonn, or into a “Mexico Protocol” at COP16.

If not now, when?

Greetings from the Fresh Air Center in Copenhagen!

The Climate Action Network was kind enough to accredit Joseph of lilcarbon for this grand adventure of Copenhagen. We have been continually impressed by their professionalism, skill, verve and smarts. Getting a peek under the covers at this team of dedicated NGOs yields all good things.

One of their team’s great contributions to the COP is the production of the daily ECO newsletter. A distillation of the news, views, and positive urgings by the constellation of CAN folks, we particularly liked Thursday’s lead story. Across all the negotiating tracks, and throughout all the developed world at least, one has to ask – If not now, when? We understand the physics of the problem. We understand the urgency of the problem. Can we really be that blind to the moral imperative of the problem. lilcarbon understands there are myriad complexities and challenge to all facets of climate change writ large. Getting moving with strong aspiration, smart solutions, and as though time is of the essence is the only way we we’ll meet the challenge.

“If not now, when?” by ECO

Since the launch of these negotiations in Bali, a ticking clock has symbolised the race against time to secure a fair, ambitious and binding deal on climate change in Copenhagen. Now the clock is approaching
midnight and all eyes are on our political leaders. Can they summon the collective vision needed to secure something positive out of a process that appears to be drifting worryingly towards failure? President Obama addressed the challenge head on last week while in Oslo to accept the Nobel Peace Prize. “There is little scientific dispute that if we do nothing, we will face more drought, famine and mass displacement that will fuel more conflict for decades. For this reason, it is not merely scientists and activists who call for swift and forceful action – it is military leaders in my country and others who understand that our common security hangs in the balance.” Political leaders throughout the world have delivered similar messages while also highlighting the huge opportunities available through a global green new deal. Now is the time for the President to match his words by committing his country to effective and responsible action in the multilateral UNFCCC process.

Last weekend almost 100,000 people marched through Copenhagen and other cities around the world. It was an unprecedented demonstration of public commitment to securing a real deal on climate change. Calls for action on climate change have emerged from every quarter of society – labour unions, business leaders, faith groups, scientists, doctors, youth, and many, many more. The impact of all this can be seen in the wave of positive moves on climate change by governments throughout the world, from the EU climate and energy package agreed last December to pledges by Brazil and Indonesia to tackle deforestation.

Without the Copenhagen deadline to focus minds, would we be seeing such positive momentum? Yes, there is still fierce opposition to action on climate change from polluting industries and their political influence cannot be under-estimated. But the fact remains that there are no insurmountable political obstacles to securing a real deal in Copenhagen. With the change of administration in the US, the few obstructions towards taking action ought to have been removed. The world’s major economies now must be committed to taking serious action and have a shared interest in doing this within a global framework. Poor and vulnerable countries have made clear that a real deal is a matter of survival for them.

The missing ingredients now are simple – trust and political leadership. Make no mistake: failure in Copenhagen would be a grave setback, fuelling public cynicism and resulting in a loss of momentum. The negative fallout could damage the prospects for multilateral cooperation on other pressing global issues, from financial regulation to trade. Meanwhile the climate crisis would continue to worsen and would only become more costly and difficult to tackle. There will never be a better time than now to rise to the challenge.

So where do we go from here? Above all, leaders need to reach agreement on three major issues: science-based mitigation targets, long-term finance and legal architecture. Progress in these areas can bridge the trust gap and provide the clarity we need to move forward in other areas, from adaptation to tackling deforestation. As President Nasheed of the Maldives reminded us yesterday: “Get the politics right, and the technology will follow. Technical creativity can make great leaps for mankind – but political leadership must provide the springboard.”

Forest Carbon deal close at hand?

We’re happy to cover an excellent article by Elizabeth Rosenthal and Jim M. Broder on the good news that a Forest deal may be close at hand in Copenhagen. They have done an excellent job of encapsulating the chaotic data stream that matches the nature of a conference of this magintude and import. lilcarbon has been keeping an eye on this negotiating stream, and attending some excellent events with the likes of Jane Goodall, Richard Branson and the leading lights of the forest carbon market. We must admit, that Ms. Rosenthal and Mr. Broder have done a better job of reporting on the state of negotiations than we could at present, so here goes:
 
“Climate Talks Near Deal to Save Forests
COPENHAGEN — Negotiators have all but completed a sweeping deal that would compensate countries for preserving forests, and in some cases, other natural landscapes like peat soils, swamps and fields that play a crucial role in curbing climate change.
 
Environmental groups have long advocated such a compensation program because forests are efficient absorbers of carbon dioxide, the primary heat-trapping gas linked to global warming. Rain forest destruction, which releases the carbon dioxide stored in trees, is estimated to account for 20 percent of greenhouse gas emissions globally.
The agreement for the program, if signed as expected, may turn out to be the most significant achievement to come out of the Copenhagen climate talks, providing a system through which countries can be paid for conserving disappearing natural assets based on their contribution to reducing emissions.
 
A final draft of the agreement for the compensation program, called Reducing Emissions From Deforestation and Forest Degradation, or REDD, is to be given on Wednesday to ministers of the nearly 200 countries represented here to hammer out a framework for a global climate treaty. Negotiators and other participants said that though some details remained to be worked out, all major points of disagreement — how to address the rights of indigenous people living on forest land and what is defined as forest, for example — had been resolved through compromise.
A final agreement on the program may not be announced until the end of the week, when President Obama and other world leaders arrive — in part because there has been so little progress on other issues at the climate summit meeting, sponsored by the United Nations.
 
“It is likely to be the most concrete thing that comes out of Copenhagen — and it is a very big thing,” said Fred Krupp, head of the Environmental Defense Fund.
 
For poorer countries, the payments will provide a much-needed new income stream. For richer nations, the lure of the program is not cash but carbon credits that can be used to cancel out, in part, their industrial emissions under a carbon trading system, like the cap-and-trade plan currently under consideration by Congress.
Forests “have become a pot of money or a get out of jail free card,” said Peg Putt, a consultant to the Wilderness Society. “Either way, there’s the prospect of financial benefit now, as opposed to just being told, ‘Do the right thing,’ like it was two years ago.”
 
The new plan represents an important shift from earlier United Nations climate programs, like the 1997 Kyoto Protocol, in which countries committed to curbing their industrial emissions but got no credit for reducing emissions through changes in land use.
 
The agreement is also being closely watched in Congress, where climate legislation passed the House in June and is currently stalled in the Senate.
 
Under the cap-and-trade system preferred by Democratic leaders and the Obama administration, companies that cannot meet their greenhouse gas pollution limit could buy extra permits by investing in carbon-reduction programs abroad. Plans to preserve forests under REDD would presumably qualify.
 
The forest program “offers the opportunities for U.S. companies to reduce emissions at lower cost, which is very important politically,” Mr. Krupp said.
 
Under the final draft of agreement, other habitats that absorb carbon dioxide — like peat bogs, which store large amounts of carbon dioxide in their soil — could be eligible for payments. This prospect has environmentalists scrambling to calculate the carbon storage capacity of other resources like swamps and fields, not for the sake of preserving beauty or biodiversity, but for their potential financial benefit.
 
“Why is everyone thinking about forest and peat land while overlooking oceans, the biggest carbon store on the planet?” said Dan Lafolley, marine vice chairman for the World Commission on Protected Areas of the Swiss-based International Union for the Conservation of Nature. “It would be a travesty if Copenhagen addressed forests but not other carbon stocks.”
 
The potential for payments has even pitted advocates for some types of forest against advocates for other types.
“Were not sure in Copenhagen there will be a definitive mechanism for monetizing forests, but if there is we think all forests should be included,” Steve Kallick, director of the Boreal Conservation Pew Environment Group, who studies northern forest stocks and noted that by some measures, boreal forests store twice as much carbon dioxide per unit as tropical forests.
 
Even if the ministers pass the agreement, as it is predicted they will, it will take some time before the money starts flowing. Many details remain to be worked out, including the exact level of emissions reduction the REDD program should aim for and by what date, and what system should be used to measure the carbon storage of various habitats.
Meanwhile, scientists and conservationists have flocked to Copenhagen to make their case.
 
“We’ve seen the idea of REDD start in forestry, but expand to other land use sectors,” Ms. Putt said.
Cary Fowler of the Global Crop Diversity Trust said he decided to come to Copenhagen when he saw no mention of crop diversity or agriculture in an earlier climate proposal.
 
“I thought I’d better come,” he said. “This negotiation will help decide what’s on the table — which issues are legitimate and which not.”
 
While progress was made on the forest program, little else was achieved at the bargaining tables here on Tuesday. A top United Nations official, asked to characterize the state of the talks, said simply, “Terrible.”
 
A new draft of a proposed global accord leaves critical questions unanswered: how deeply nations will cut their greenhouse gas emissions, how much money will flow to help poor nations adapt to global warming and how any environmental program will be monitored and verified.
 
“There’s a great deal yet to do,” said Todd Stern, the chief climate change envoy for the United States.
Mr. Stern also said that President Obama would not consider changing the American commitment to reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the United States by about 17 percent below 2005 levels by 2020.
“It’s tied to legislation,” he said. “We don’t want to promise something we don’t have.”
 
Leaders have already abandoned hope of completing a binding international treaty here and say they will continue the work next year. Trying to infuse a sense of urgency, former Vice President Al Gore pressed the negotiators in an afternoon speech to speed up next year’s sessions with an eye toward completing a treaty in July. He also asked Mr. Obama and Senate leaders to set an April deadline for completing a Senate climate and energy bill.
 
Mr. Obama has been talking with a number of foreign officials in advance of his arrival here on Friday, the last scheduled day of the conference. He has spoken with the leaders of Britain, France, Germany, Ethiopia and Bangladesh since Monday, hoping to find a way to bridge the differences between the developed and developing countries that have divided this effort for years.
 
Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton will arrive in Copenhagen on Thursday to help provide a final push toward agreement, a State Department official confirmed. She will stay until Mr. Obama departs, the official said.
Ban Ki-moon, secretary general of the United Nations, addressed the delegates Tuesday night as they moved into the final days of negotiations.
 
“We do not have another year to deliberate,” he said. “Nature does not negotiate.”

Forest Carbon and REDD are a major focus of our parent company, CPS Carbon Project Solutions Inc. Copenhagen has provided a fertile environment for practitioners in this market, with the Avoided Deforestation Partners event, and panels by the VCS. We are looking forward to a solid deal at the COP, and to the market developments going forward that shall catalyse the protection of existing forests, and the restoration of degraded ecosystems using the driver of carbon finance.

The Climate Rally

In Copenhagen alone, between 30,000 and 100,000 people came together on Saturday to rally for strong, brave action on climate change. From all corners of the earth they came, representing faith groups, businesses, NGOs, families and causes galore, marching 6km in the bracing cold to say “hey, let’s get it done in Copenhagen”.

There are many ways to tell the story of Saturday’s climate change rally. “Getting it done” means many things to many people. lilcarbon walked with Paulina and Jenny from a Swedish church group for 3 hours of the march on the Bella Centre.

They came here on an old, slow, 1960’s train to walk together with an assembled humanity united in its desire to preserve “God’s green earth” (lilcarbon’s words.) Their signs were emblazoned with a ticking clock, and as night fell, their candles shone brightly in the dark December gloom.

Despite what discouraging word one might hear on the news, of deniers, of uncertainty, of “tough negotiation” at the UNFCCC climate conference here in Copenhagen, smiling faces on a cold Scandinavian night certainly give one pause for hope.

This speech from Archbishop Desmond Tutu that lays gentle warm fire under the “rightness” of the cause.

Climate change is on the agenda now. More than half the world leaders arrive over the next couple days to weigh in, hopefully on the “side of right”, to push a deal forward. The week will end with one outcome or another, and the fight will move on. No one said it would be easy, but marching along with Paulina and Jenny, one get’s the feeling that we’re going to get it all sorted out.

Popular COP

It is a promising sign that politicians, media, activists and businesspeople from all over the fair world are travelling to Copenhagen. Achieving a fair, binding and ambitious agreement is exactly the right way to close out the decade and put humanity on track to slow and then reverse emissions growth. In the flurry of optimism, COP15’s popularity is set to begin causing problems as the Bella Centre fills up and leaves confirmed, accredited delegates out in the cold.

NGOs have recently been informed that they may need to cut 60% of their accredited delegates from the roster as the conference moves forward. As you can imagine this is being met with some consternation by NGOs and business (as business people attending are largely admitted via UN accredited NGOs).

The situation will surely become clearer over the next day or so. In the meantime, those about to embark for Copenhagen are left with the decision to cancel, wait, or hurry up and see if they can secure a spot at this momentous meeting.

Your lilcarbon team has chosen the latter, moved up their flights and closed the long process of preparation with a zoom. Good fortune to all those streaming to that jewel of the north. We look forward to keeping you abreast of developments and getting you your first post from the city of Copenhagen…